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LIVERPOOL FC (0) v STANDARD LIEGE (0)
Date: Wednesday 27th August
Time: 19.45 BST
Competition: Champions League: 3rd round qualifying, second leg
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Liverpool were less than impressive in the first leg in Belgium, and they will have been happy to escape with a 0-0 draw in the end, after Standard missed a penalty as well as creating the game’s best chances.
Liverpool have won their 2 league games since, but have been unconvincing; they were held for 83 minutes at Sunderland until Torres’ winner on the first day of the season and were 0-1 down at home to Middlesbrough until the 86th minute, when an own goal from Pogatetz and a last minute goal from Gerrard won the game 2-1 – they have got the results, but there are worrying signs for Benitez’s side.
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Standard, in contrast have started their domestic season well, scoring 3 goals in each of their 2 wins since the 1st leg; while the Jupiler League is not one of the best in Europe, all Standard can do is beat the teams that play against them - last season their league record was 22-11-1 and they have only lost 4 matches in their last 48 in all competitions.
Considering also that Liverpool are not invincible at Anfield, with losses to Barnsley, Man Utd and Marseille at home last season, the bookies’ best price for the Liverpool win at around $1.20 seems too short, especially given their stuttering performances at the start of this season.
Liverpool could be in danger of under-estimating Standard in the same way that the bookies seem to and they were similarly expected to beat Marseille comfortably at home last season, before losing 0-1. Although Liverpool, with the quality that they have in their side, are more than capable of beating Standard well on their day, at the price, all value lies with the away side.
Paddy Power quote $5.00 for the double chance on the draw or the Standard win, and while the implications of such a result would be catastrophic for Liverpool, in terms of value, it is well worth a low-stakes bet.
A less risky bet though, may be the handicap (Liverpool -2 goals) away win; a 1 goal loss or better for Standard would return odds of $2.45 from Bet Safe.
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