Parma v Inter
Serie A - Sunday 18 May 2008
Inter’s 2-2 home draw with mid-table side Siena last week leaves the holders and current leaders just 1 point ahead of Roma going into what should be a thrilling final day in this season’s Serie A, with both sides playing away to two teams that are fighting for survival.
Parma, in 18th place and 2 points below Roma’s opponents Catania in 17th and safety, have their poor away record to thank for another struggling season; at home they have been reasonable, taking 27 points (7-6-5) from out of a total of just 34 points home and away.
After last week’s 1-3 loss at Fiorentina (their 4th in 5 games), Parma coach Hector Cuper was sacked, and the decision seems particularly ill-timed with such a crucial game to come.
A win on the final day of last season helped to save both Parma and Catania, but that day the sides were playing Empoli and Chievo, respectively; against sides challenging for the title, the task will be far greater.
Despite leading Serie A since September, Inter’s 1-2 loss in the Milan derby followed by their home draw to Siena has once again let Roma back in with a chance of stealing the title; at a number of points this season, with the Champions League 2nd Knockout stage losses to Liverpool serving as valid examples, Inter have stumbled when under a great deal of pressure.
Yet, away to the league’s worst sides this season, Inter have excelled, taking 7 wins and 2 draws from 9 games away to the sides in the bottom half of the table.
Also, Parma’s record at home to the sides in the top 10 is not too great (3-2-4 from 9 games); though relegation-threatened sides can punch well above their weight when it comes to the crunch, a title seeking Inter should be too strong for Parma on Sunday.
The best price of $1.60 for the Inter win is a little too short, so given that five of Inter’s 7 away wins against the bottom half sides have been 2-0 results and that the other two have been 1-0s, the split stakes bet on the correct scores of 1-0 and 2-0 should hold more value, and Inter should be able to re-claim the title, relegating Parma in the process.
Stake: 1.5pts
Bet: Correct score, 1-0 to Inter
Odds: $9.50
Bookmaker: Sportingbet
Stake: 1.5pts
Bet: Correct score, 2-0 to Inter
Odds: $9.50
Bookmaker: Sportingbet
