Recreativo v Valladolid
La Liga - Sunday 18 May 2008
With Recre in 17th and Valladolid in 15th, it's possible that one of these teams could find themselves relegated by the end of Sunday evening.
Along with Osasuna and Zaragoza, they will be hoping to avoid the one relegation place still available.
Recre won a vital 2-0 win at Almeria last Sunday to move them out of the relegation zone, but they will need to follow that up with the right result this weekend.
Whilst Recre have failed to beat any of the top six at home, their record against sides further down the table is a more respectable 6-3-3, and only one of those defeats have been since the end of October.
Valladolid drew 0-0 at home to Getafe last week, their second draw in a row. They have only managed the one win in six games, but know that a draw is enough. Valladolid just need not to lose to Recre to guarantee survival.
Whilst Valladolid have a 5-2-11 away from home, their record against the bottom eight is an impressive 4-2-0.
Bear in mind also that if Zaragoza lose, both these sides are safe and that it won't be in anyone's interest to go for the win in the last half-hour if Zaragoza are losing; given that they taking on a Mallorca side who have won five on the trot, then it's not unlikely Zaragoza could be the team going down.
Given this, in addition to the form guide, a draw would look decent value at a price like $2.75. All bookies go above $3.00 - with the exception of William Hill who seem to have spotted this and quote $2.87 - and the $3.25 quote is fantastic value.
Stake: 5pts
Bet: Draw
Odds: $3.25
Bookmaker: Unibet