Mallorca v Zaragoza
La Liga - Sunday 18 May 2008
Zaragoza need a win to survive the drop and it's possible that a draw might do (if Recre lose at home to Valladolid). Mallorca, though, are still in contention for a UEFA Cup spot (they need to win and hope Racing drop points at Osasuna), so it won't be an easy ride.
Mallorca are highly priced to win this game which is a surprise. The threat of relegation may act as a spur for the guests, but Mallorca are on form and they will be hoping that their recent run pays off in the form of European football next season.
Mallorca came back from two goals down last week to beat Barcelona 3-2 at the Nou Camp. That win made it five successive victories for the islanders and eight wins from their last eleven games.
A key figure in the run - and the scorer of the last minute winner at Barcelona - is Dani Guiza, who now tops La Liga's scoring charts with 26 goals with15 of those have come in the last 12 games. The rest of the team have been just as active; those last 12 games have seen Mallorca hit 32 goals in total!
That attacking success has come at an expense, though; they have kept just the two clean sheets in 12 games
Zaragoza, in 18th, gave themselves a chance of surviving with a 2-2 draw at home to already-crowned champions Real Madrid last week.
However, the fact that they have won just the once away all season (and lost 12) doesn't bode well. That away form is also reflected by their goals scored column. In total, they have netted 48 goals (the highest of any team outside the top seven), but only 12 of those goals have come in away games.
A Guiza first goalscorer bet is available at $6.00 at Gamebookers, but an Anytime Goalscorer odds of $2.75 from the same bookies may be better value. But, the true value lies in the odds on the Mallorca win.
They are $2.40 at Bet365 which looks generous given Mallorca's form and that their quest for UEFA Cup football still on. Zaragoza may be "needing" a win, but they haven't shown enough quality all season away from home to suggest they can suddenly manufacture a victory when they need it.
With Mallorca scoring a hatful in recent weeks, but prone to conceding, the correct score of 3-1 quote of $21.00 from the same place looks appealing.
Stake: 4pts
Bet: Mallorca to win
Odds: $2.40
Bookmaker: Bet365
Stake: 0.5pts
Bet: Correct score, 3-1 Mallorca
Odds: $21.00
Bookmaker: Bet365
