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ISSUE 9
Fri 16 May 2008

Leverkusen v Werder

Bundesliga - Saturday 17 May 2008

Bayer Leverkusen are one of 4 teams on the same number of points going for two available Uefa Cup spots for next season.

They currently sit on top of that mini-group with a better goal difference than Hamburg, Wolfsburg and Stuttgart.

Bayer’s 2-1 win away to bottom place Rostock last week, ended their run of 4 games without a win, and prior to tthat game, they had lost 6 games out of 8 in the league; 2 months ago, Bayer were well placed for a title challenge, but recent form has been poor to say the least (2-1-6 from the last 9 games).

Of those 4 sides going for the Uefa Cup spots, Bayer have the hardest last game, at home to 2nd place Werder.

Werder are guaranteed a place in the Champions League but with Schalke just 2 points below them in 3rd, they will want to avoid the qualification round, and in good form (a run of 7 games unbeaten, winning 6 of those), they look capable of securing 2nd place in the table.

Since the beginning of April, Werder have won 3 and drawn 1 from their last 4 away games; those three wins (including an impressive 1-0 win at Hamburg) were all by the one goal.

Bayer lost their last home game (1-2 vs 9th place Hertha Berlin) and despite their not too impressive win over Rostock last week, Werder, who have won the last 3 meetings between the sides, shouldn’t find them too hard to beat again.

Werder are a very reasonable $2.77 at Pinnacle to win; with form on their side, Werder should finish the season in style, and Bayer may have to hope other results go their way if they are to qualify for European football next term.

Stake: 5pts
Bet: Werder to win
Odds: $2.77
Bookmaker: Pinnacle Sports


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ISSUE 9
Fri 16 May 2008

Nurnberg v Schalke

Bundesliga - Saturday 17 May 2008

Nurnberg, 17th, need to win this game and for Stuttgart to defeat Bielefeld for the Bavarians to remain in the 1.Bundesliga.

Nurnberg lost 0-1 at Hertha last week; hardly a surprise, that being their 12th away defeat of the season.

At home, they are 5-7-4 all season, and won their last home game 2-0 against Duisburg, a result which effectively sent their guests down.

However, against the top seven at home they have found victories harder (record of 1-2-3) but haven't been overrun, as demostrated by the fact they only conceded seven goals in those six games.

Schalke are looking for an automatic spot in next year's Champions League and are fighting with Werder for second place. They are two points behind, but must hope for Werder to slip up by losing at Leverkusen.

They have ended the season well. The 1-5 thrashing at Werder in mid-April was their only defeat in 11 games and since that loss, they have gone 4-1-0, scoring 11 and conceding just the one, including the 1-0 win over Frankfurt last Saturday.

In games against sides outside the top ten they have been very impressive, with a 12-2-1 record, scoring 31 goals.

Away from home, they have racked up 27 points, the second best record in the Bundesliga and, with second place up for grabs, they do have something to play for.

The odds on the away win are very high; Nurnberg have disappointed this season and should have done better, but the league table doesn't lie - Schalke should be too strong and with a real chance to qualify for the lucrative Champions League for the second year in a row, there's no danger of this game only being about Nurnberg's survival. Any odds over around $2.10 should be taken for Schalke and anything over $2.50 certainly snapped up.

Stake: 7pts
Bet: Schalke to win
Odds: $2.63
Bookmaker: Bet365


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