At the end of March, Hamburg’s home form was an impressive 8-5-0 for the season, and they were in contention for a Champions League place; since then, though their form has been terrible (1-1-5 from their last 7 games), and they have lost their last 3 home games (all 0-1s).

Hamburg are still in contention for a Uefa Cup place, but are fighting with 3 other sides for the 2 available places.

Karlsruhe, currently in 10th place going into their last game, will be very happy with their season after promotion and will take a comfortable mid-table place.

They have not ended the season well, though, winning just once out of their last 11 league games; that win did come away from home at 17th place Duisburg a month ago.

Since that win at Duisburg, Karlsruhe have drawn 2 and lost 2 from 4 games that shouldn’t have been so tricky (9th place Hertha was the highest placed team); 5th place Hamburg will be a harder challenge, but themselves are in poor form.

The $1.37 about the Hamburg win, though understandable as they have more incentive, means that all value lies against them; given both sides’ inconsistent form, the result should be a lot closer than that price suggests, making the $3.15 at Centrebet for the draw or Karlsruhe win should be a worthwhile value bet.

Stake: 3pts
Bet: Double Chance (Draw or Karlsruhe win)
Odds: $3.15
Bookmaker: Centrebet

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Dortmund drew 2-2 at Bielefeld last week, leaving them in 13th place and safe. They have European football to look forward to next season, thanks to ending up runners-up in the DFB Pokal and they are not involved in the last-day relegation battle.

Over the course of the season they have shipped a lot of goals; 58 is the worst defensive record in the league. Their four home defeats this season have all come at the expense of 3 goals.

Wolfsburg are in the hunt for a UEFA Cup spot and have helped their cause in recent weeks. Last week, they saw off Stuttgart 4-0, the week before they won 3-2 at Frankfurt. In their last four goals, they have scored 9 goals, with 7 different goalscorers.

To couple with Dortmund's defensive worries, Wolfsburg boast 54 goals scored this season - in a game which Wolfsburg need to win, goals should be expected. However, what's also expected is the $1.55 about the Over 2.5 goals market.

Instead, consider the simple away win with perhaps a booster of a correct score. With little to play for, Dortmund's defence can't be expected to suddenly out-perform Wolfsburg's attack - the odds of around $2.00 for the Wolves to win are decent.

As a possible boost to the return, perhaps consideration should be given to a correct score where Wolfsburg score 3 goals. Six of Wolfsburg's 7 away wins have been by the one goal, so a 3-2 at $30.00 at Mybet might tempt some.

However, given Dortmund's recent malaise and expected indifference in this game, they can't be expected to do enough to score twice. Instead, the 3-1 at Bet365 at $17.00 looks better value.

Stake: 6pts
Bet: Wolfsburg to win
Odds: $2.10
Bookmaker: Boyle Sports

Stake: 0.5pts
Bet: Correct score, 3-1 Wolfsburg
Odds: $17.00
Bookmaker: Bet365

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