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ISSUE 9
Fri 16 May 2008

Toulouse v Valenciennes

Ligue 1 - Saturday 17 May 2008

Toulouse, in 17th, are equal on points with Lens in 18th in the relegation zone, but are ahead by virtue of their superior goal difference; a win against Valenciennes, especially as Lens have a tough game against 2nd place Bordeaux, would almost certainly see the safe.

Valenciennes, safe in 13th place, have not had their away form to thank for their survival; they are a miserable 1-5-12 away from home this season and that one win out of 18 was against Lorient (3-1) in August - they have now gone 15 games without a win away.

When Toulouse play at home, they too have problems getting wins, with just 3 out of 18 home games (3-11-4); their last win at home was back in December (vs Lille 1-0), and since then their home record has been 0-7-2.

Valenciennes haven’t won in 4 games and will be looking forward to next season; Toulouse have the incentive, with their league status to play for and while they have struggled to get a win at home, Valenciennes should present them with an easy opportunity to all but secure it.

Toulouse are a best price of just $1.44, so the correct score option should offer much more value; Valenciennes cannot score away, with just 8 goals scored away all season, and though Toulouse also have problems scoring at home (with just 12 goals), their defence is tight and has conceded just 14.

It should be low-scoring; Toulouse have scored more than one goal in a match at home only once out of 18 games this season, so if they are to win, the 1-0 result is probable and 4 of Valenciennes last 7 away losses have been 1-0s.

While the under 1.5 goals at $3.25 from Sporting Bet can be considered as the 0-0 draw is not impossible (when added together, the sides have drawn 0-0 thirteen times this season), splitting the stake with the 0-0 scoreline would be offer a better return, as Valenciennes are unlikely to be able to snatch the win.

Stake: 1pts
Bet: Correct score, 0-0
Odds: $11.00
Bookmaker: BoyleSports

Stake: 1.5pts
Bet: Correct score, 1-0 Toulouse
Odds: $7.00
Bookmaker: Betway


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ISSUE 9
Fri 16 May 2008

Marseille v Strasbourg

Ligue 1 - Saturday 17 May 2008

Strasbourg will be playing in Ligue 2 next season, due to their complete collapse around 3 months ago; they have lost their last 10 league games in a row and haven’t even scored away from home since the 1st of March (5 away games ago).

With Nancy only 1 point ahead of them in the final Champions League spot, Marseille will be glad to be playing the worst form side in France and at the Stade Velodrome they should ease to the win that will put Nancy under pressure in their final game against 7th place Rennes.

Marseille are 6-1-2 at home against teams in the bottom half and this, plus Strasbourg’s woeful form adds up to Marseille being a short, but expected $1.20 to win on the fixed odds.

Marseille have lost their last 2 home games, but they were far harder games against 5th place Lille (1-3), and 2nd place Bordeaux (1-2); with Strasbourg unable to score away from home and in such poor form, the win should not be a problem for Marseille.

The win to nothing could be considered, with Strasbourg not scoring in each of their 11 away losses this season, but the correct score option should be a better bet.

In Marseille’s 6 wins at home to the bottom half sides, they haven’t thrashed sides, winning by the one goal 3 times and by two goals also 3 times; with Strasbourg unlikely to score, the options of 1-0 (at $7.50) and 2-0 (at $7.00) with a split stake should be worth going for.

Stake: 1.5pts
Bet: Correct score, 1-0 Marseille
Odds: $7.50
Bookmaker: Bet365

Stake: 1.5pts
Bet: Correct score, 2-0 Marseille
Odds: $7.00
Bookmaker: Victor Chandler


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