Cardiff v Portsmouth
FA Cup FINAL - Saturday 17 May 2008
Saturday’s final between Cardiff and Portsmouth will provide the first FA cup winners outside of the “big four” since Everton in 1995 and not many would have expected the competition to turn out as it has.
Cardiff ended season in 12th place in the Championship, 24 places below Portsmouth, who came 8th in the Premiership. Portsmouth are big favourites to win the cup (at a best price of $1.36), but their form is poor; they have lost their last 4 league games, and have not scored in the last 3 of those.
Though Harry Redknapp will still be happy with Portsmouth’s comfortable top-half finish, their form and mainly their lack of goals will be a serious concern; veterans David James and Sol Campbell will be back to reinforce their leaky defence, but Jermaine Defoe, who after his January arrival helped to solve their goalscoring crisis at that time, will not play, as he is cup-tied.
Together with a 1-0 win over Man Utd in the quarter finals, Portsmouth have beaten 4 Championship sides in their run to the final, all by the one goal (1-0 vs Ipswich, 2-1 vs Plymouth, 1-0 vs Preston and 1-0 vs West Brom), and they should know what to expect, but they have rode their luck at times; they were fortunate to go through against Man Utd, as they were awarded a controversial penalty which won the game and they were mostly outplayed in the semi-final against West Brom.
Cardiff’s league form in recent weeks has also been in question and they had not won for 3 games, conceding 3 goals in each of those games, before beating their semi-final opponents Barnsley (3-0) in their last Championship game of the season.
Cardiff’s route to the final: 3-1 vs Chasetown, 2-1 vs Hereford, 2-0 vs Wolves, 2-0 vs Middlesbrough and 1-0 v Barnsley.
All value seems to lie with the underdogs, Cardiff, as bookies expect a game similar to Man Utd’s 3-0 win over Millwall four years ago, the last time a lower division side was in the final; the divide should be far less obvious this time though, and Cardiff should cause Portsmouth some problems.
Cardiff have started well in their last four FA cup ties, each time winning at half-time, and they have taken the lead within the first 10 minutes in their last three; Joe Ledley’s 9th minute winning goal against Barnsley in the semi-final showed that Cardiff were not over-awed by Wembley and they capitalised well after a good start.
Cardiff can tend to fade in the second half of games, but they consistently start well; Cardiff have been leading at half time in 10 out of their last 13 games in all competitions.
Cardiff are $3.00 at Paddy Power to score first and this looks worth going for, perhaps in conjunction with the same bookies’ $5.50 for them to be leading at half-time; the FA Cup has provided many shocks and surprises this year and the full-time result is harder to call, but Cardiff should be able to start well and put themselves in with a great chance of upsetting the odds.
Stake: 2.5pts
Bet: Cardiff to score first
Odds: $3.00
Bookmaker: Paddypower
Stake: 1.5pts
Bet: HT result (Cardiff to lead at H-T)
Odds: $5.50
Bookmaker: Paddypower
