Manchester United v Chelsea
Champions League Final - Wednesday 21 May 2008 (at Luzhniki Stadium, Moscow)
Wednesday's Champions League match-up is the first all-English final in Europe's premier club competition. Man United are aiming for their third European Cup title, whilst for Chelsea a victory would bring the European Cup back to London for the first time.
Man United are slight favourites coming into the game and should have the upper hand psychologically. They claimed the Premiership title ten days back on the final day of the league season seeing off Chelsea's challenge (who could only draw at home to Bolton in their must-win game) to make it two league titles in a row (with Chelsea coming second each time).
Over the season, Man United have been scoring a hatful (80 in the Premiership, the best record) and defended well (22 goals conceded also the Premiership best). Cristiano Ronaldo has been a key figure over the 9 months (31 goals in the league, 7 in Europe) and the stage is set for him to confirm his status as Europe's best player.
This season the teams have met three times (once in the Community Shield at the start of the season which ended 1-1) and in the league they have a win apiece (Man United winning 2-0 at Old Trafford, Chelsea 2-1 at Stamford Bridge).
A tight low-scoring game is expected by many, but that's certainly not been the recent history of the Champions League final. The last four Finals have seen 15 goals and the traditional cageyness expected in finals hasn't been evident in the last four years. Many of the players on show on Wednesday have played on this stage before and for those that haven't their big-game experience should ensure they won't be attacked by nerves on the night.
However, there is one piece of evidence that could suggest an uneventful game and that was the FA Cup Final in 2007, where Chelsea and Man United cancelled each other out, drawing 0-0 after 90 minutes and with Chelsea winning the cup with a Drogba goal four minutes away from penalties.
Comparing with last season, the goals for and goals against columns of both sides this season is very similar to what it was last season which doesn't rule out another cagey 0-0, but the key difference from last season has been the form of Ronaldo and their results against the top teams in Europe this season.
Man United's record against the best in Europe has been very good in 2007/08. A record of 4-1-1 in the Premiership against the other top four (Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool), is boosted by a record of 4-2-0 against AS Roma, Barcelona and AS Roma again in the Champions League this season. In those six Champions League games, they conceded just the one goal, whilst scoring six.
Chelsea, meanwhile are 2-2-2 in the Premiership against the top four, whilst in the Champions League they drew twice (in 90 minutes) with Liverpool, making it a record of only 2-4-2 against the top sides in Europe.
United have not conceded in five games in Europe and have kept eight clean sheets in 12 games in the competition. Chelsea's record is similarly strong (seven clean sheets in 12 games), but United's opponents this season in the Champions League have been tougher.
United are $2.50 to win the game at Bet365. However, if United are to win, there's every expectation that Ronaldo will once again prove to be the key player. He has scored in 8 of the last 10 league games (10 goals) and seven of those goals came in the first half. In total, he has been first goalscorer a remarkable 13 times in the Premiership and 3 times in the Champions League.
10Bet quote $6.50 on Ronaldo first goalscorer; this is perhaps better value than the anytime goalscorer of $2.25 given Ronaldo's role as the driving force in the United team.
A scorecast may be considered as a bit on the side. Whilst both sides should be expected to produce an entertaining game, the defensive qualities of Man United and Chelsea should preclude there being lots of goals. United are good enough to keep another clean sheet and if they can grab an early goal they look deadly enough on the counter-attack to see off a Chelsea side who will be searching for the equaliser.
The Ronaldo first goal and United 2-0 is available at $41.00 with Bet365
Stake: 1.5pts
Bet: Ronaldo (United) first goalscorer
Odds: $6.50
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Stake: 7pts
Bet: Man United to win (in 90 minutes)
Odds: $2.50
Bookmaker: Bet365
Stake: 0.5pts
Bet: Scorecast - Ronaldo first goalscorer AND United 2-0
Odds: $41.00
Bookmaker: Bet365
