Empoli v Livorno
Serie A - Sunday 18 May 2008
This is an example of an all-too-common trend in end of season encounters in Italy; Livorno are down and have nothing to play for, whilst Empoli need a win (and for Catania to lose and Parma not to win) to give them a chance for survival.
Odds on Empoli (19th in the league, one position above Livorno) are around the $1.25 mark, with the draw at $6.00 and Livorno at $12.50 indicative of the fact that, in Italian football particularly, players really don't have any pride. If you doubt this, consider that Livorno were quoted at $12.00 when they visited Inter earlier in the season.
Looking at the stats in detail seems a futile exercise in the circumstances, but it's perhaps not unwise to point out that, since Nicola Pozzi was injured in February, goals have dried up for Empoli; they have scored just six goals in their last 13 games.
Livorno, too, have trouble up front with Tavano their top scorer (10 goals) not having scored for 14 games and the club's second top scorer only managing three league goals all season.
Even if Livorno - whose cunning plan to sack coach Camolese with three games remaining justifiably backfired - play dead and let Empoli walk over them, the hosts are so poor in attack it won't be a surprise to see a single goal deciding it. Even if the single goal is decisive, don't bet against Livorno getting it, so a 1-0 Empoli scoreline doesn't offer much value.
The bookies know the deal in these situations, but they do seem to have been generous in the Under 2.5 goals market, with some quoting as low as $1.85, but 10Bet quote 2.23.
However, given both sides' inability to find the net (Livorno have at least scored in recent games, but are clearly not concerned whether that can continue), the Under 1.5 goals market is perhaps better value.
But, this is a game not to bet heavily on. A small stake for a small return only is recommended.
Stake: 2pts
Bet: Under 1.5 goals
Odds: $4.75
Bookmaker: Unibet
